The first week of 2024 has officially come and gone, and there are already some notable talking points set to emerge this year in the world of publishing. At the forefront is, of course, artificial intelligence, which is expected to intensify its efforts. What is clear is that this year will be an amplified version of the last, so we can expect some profound changes in the publishing landscape.

Artificial intelligence in publishing: A changing tidal wave

Trade union the Society of Authors’ Chief Executive, Nicola Solomon, stated that they would continue to “press for transparency, credit, control and compensation for our members and to inform them of the opportunities and risks of the new technologies.” Just this week, the organisation issued a call to writers to complete a survey on their use of generative AI.

Read: Society of Authors launches generative AI survey

Kathleen Schmidt, the writer behind “Publishing Confidential,” agrees that there will likely be more efforts to crack down on and regulate AI this year, even though “the train has already left the station, and media companies are using AI.” Once again, we’ll be playing catch-up in our attempts to control this confounding technology.

It’s likely that Amazon Kindle Direct Publishing may encounter further issues with AI-generated books. Last year, it issued new guidance limiting authors to publishing three books a day, which is already excessive, and I can’t imagine this will stem the flow of illicit content.

Another unintended issue that could arise is Google’s move towards a generative AI search function. How is this relevant for books, you ask? Well, if you haven’t already noticed, many media organisations love creating “top book lists” and “best recommendations.” The problem is, if Google features all this information at the top, then there will be no point in actually writing these articles. As a result, we may see fewer of them being written in the long term.

The shifting landscape of social media and personalised content

Regarding social media – honestly? It’s going to become much less relevant. Twitter, or X as it is now called, continues its downward spiral, and despite years of great advertising and networking, it’s about to hit a wall. Alternatives like Mastodon, BlueSky, and Threads haven’t made the predicted impact. What’s apparent is a deep sense of fatigue with social networks, and what we might actually see is the rise of more encrypted messaging services for increased one-to-one contact. Advertising on Facebook is almost pointless now, with some experiencing a $2 cost per click.

Substack has gained increasing popularity as an alternative following the (almost) demise of Elon Musk’s platform. So much so that we have seen prominent authors such as Hanif Kureishi, Elif Shafak, and George Saunders making the most of their subscriptions. This year, it’s all about direct connections and personalisation.

Read: BookTok: please don’t let TikTok publishing lower the bar

Strangely, TikTok still dominates when it comes to books. Its move towards creating its own publishing house, not to mention the level of marketing magic that happens on the platform, continues to have a massive influence on what people read. It doesn’t seem like that’s about to change, but publishers should be cautious about the possibility of it gearing content towards its own offerings now.

Goodreads in trouble and the future of book consumption

And yes, Goodreads will probably be in the news again – for all the wrong reasons. The beleaguered platform experienced many issues last year, including serious review bombing, and these problems will not go away without major changes to the book recommendation site. Many users have already started moving to alternatives like StoryGraph, and unless publishers intervene, we might start seeing Goodreads winding down.

On a side note, one trend we’ve seen increasingly on TikTok is the art of slow reading with more than 41 million joining the hashtag. Last year, there was significant backlash against the gamification of reading, and as a result, more people are choosing to read fewer books in order to savour the experience. Consequently, we may see more content geared towards people reading longer books. While Schmidt believes that shorter fiction will rule the roost, there may be room for both.

Fiction may reflect reality: themes

It’s also an election year, and with political upheaval, we can expect literature to mirror some of these realities. We saw a rise in dystopian fiction during the tenure of the 45th President, and with the possibility of Donald Trump running again, there may be renewed interest in his backstory. Will this be the last we see of him? Only time will tell. But book bans will continue their ugly path across the US.

Likewise, 2023 brought a surge of climate-related content, and considering the critical urgency of the crisis, this trend is unlikely to change. While pandemic novels may be on the decline, 2024 might see an increase in books addressing the cost of living, exploring themes like poverty, mental health, and hunger.

We reached out to industry experts for their publishing insights on what 2024 might hold for readers and writers alike.

The rise of escapism and decline in biographies

Lindsey Chastain, owner of The Writing Detective, a content marketing and PR firm, shared her thoughts with How To Be Books: “In fiction, romance and fantasy will continue to grow and romance will remain one of the most dominant genres. I also expect to see more escapist genres like fantasy, science fiction, thrillers and horror increase as people look for more escapes from reality. We have historically seen rises in escapist fiction when there are political tensions,” she observed.

“For non-fiction, I expect to see a decline in biographies and nature books. Sales haven’t been fantastic and celebrities are facing increasing scrutiny for using ghostwriters without crediting them. I expect to see a rise in history and health/wellness books based on sales trends.” She adds that audiobooks, ebooks, and self-publishing will all continue to rise in popularity.

LGBTQ+ literature and low-stakes fiction

Shannon Donaghy, a fiction team book publicist with Smith Publicity, noticed significant shifts: “In our book marketing and publicity work, we’ve noticed a rise in LGBTQ+ literature receiving top tier media attention. A lot of publishing industry media specifically has shifted focus in an effort to be more inclusive, but popularity for LGBTQ+ narratives has grown with traditional media as well.”

It’s possible that, in response to the recent efforts to ban books in the US, a counterculture has emerged to combat these measures. Furthermore, with Millennials and Gen Z increasingly seeking comfort and escapism, especially given the emotionally charged news cycles of late, Donaghy anticipates a growing interest in low-stakes fiction as well.

Embracing AI in writing

Joshua Lisec, an internationally recognised ghostwriter and author, foresees a pivotal year for AI in publishing, including “making peace with AI.” The “So Good They Call You a Fake” author adds: “It will feel similar to ’08-’09 when Kindle ebook self-publishing opened up a faster, easier way to publish.” Lisec believes that AI will transform the publishing process, starting with niche indie authors and expanding to well-known nonfiction writers. However, authors will draw the line at AI doing the actual ‘writing’ due to copyright issues.

These expert opinions offer a dynamic view of the publishing industry in 2024, indicating shifts in genre popularity, technological integration, and a focus on inclusivity and escapism in literature. However, it’s noticeable that due to AI, different workflows and tools will emerge this year. This will undoubtedly divide opinions, with some steadfastly refusing to use AI. Unquestionably, there will be more lawsuits this year, challenging Big Tech over its alleged use of copyrighted materials. Meanwhile, AI will provide opportunities to those who have never considered writing before. Therefore, 2024 is set to showcase significant changes in publishing, prompting us to reconsider the role of the writer in this evolving landscape.